Omdia’s analyst, Linda Lin, has a posted a refreshingly in-depth and stan-free account of what is going on with everyone’s favorite fruit-forward tech company. Lin reports that Apple’s iPad panel purchasing is forecast to decline 36% YoY to 45.5 million units in 2023 – its lowest volume since 2020 – due to inventory burden and weak demand.
iPad Pro models face significant demand declines in 2023 versus prior years as high-priced products struggle in recessions. 12.9-inch iPad Pro panel supply could fall over 60% for Sharp and LG Display. Sharp’s 11-inch iPad Pro supply may also decrease 70% year-over-year.
Per Omdia, Apple’s tablet panel shipments fell 28% QoQ in Q2’23 to its lowest level since Q2’20, reflecting 2023’s challenging sales environment. However, Apple increased purchasing for 10.9-inch iPad Air and iPad against the recession in Q2. In 2H23, Apple may boost iPad panel purchasing 8% in Q3 to prepare for holiday sales, with marginal increases forecast for most models except 10.2-inch. With no demand recovery indication, Apple plans decreased Q4 purchasing as inventory control takes priority.
Reflecting weak high-end tablet demand, Apple’s supplier share has changed markedly, especially impacting Sharp. BOE and LG Display shares grow as mainstream iPad and iPad Air demand rises over iPad Pros. Apple may finally launch OLED iPad panels in 2024, starting with 11-inch and 12.9-inch iPad Pros from LG Display and Samsung Display. The 2024 target is 10 million OLED units. Apple also discusses expanding OLED to other models after 2024, starting iPad mini and iPad Air in 2026.