Study: Medicaid enrollment outpacing projections, spurred by COVID-19

State Medicaid programs are reporting an uptick in enrollment compared with their fiscal year 2020 projections, due in part to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The research, unveiled Friday by the Kaiser Family Foundation, reveals that nearly all surveyed states that were able to provide projections anticipate their FY 2020 enrollment to grow beyond what was anticipated. More than half also expect the same impact on their Medicaid spending for the same period. Furthermore, nearly all states with projections expect this trend to continue into FY 2021 for both enrollment and spending.

Medicaid budget shortfalls stemming from enrollment increases are a reported concern; 40% of surveyed states expect deficits in FY 2020, and nearly all expect shortfalls for FY 2021.